1. The Big Picture
This is the Walk-Forward Analysis report for the REC (a.k.a THE Boom & Bust Cycle) on the DJI using monthly data from 1790. It has been incredibly consistent (obviously not perfect) with nearly 90% efficiency. This is where our discussion has to begin because of what the REC projects for the remainder of the decade.
The chart below continues the exercise from:
In other words, we are updating the model with the latest data so that we can tell the current time on the “clock”.